What are Sleepers?

By Dan Byers

 

While most people do not ask this question, they probably would not be able to answer the question succinctly.  What is a sleeper, in terms of fantasy football (FF)?  Well, the best definition given at www.dictionary.com is this: “One that sleeps: a heavy sleeper who was not wakened by the burglar.”  Not truly an equivalent in fantasy football, but it comes fairly close.  Off of the web site www.fftoolbox.com, their definition is: “A draft term for a NFL player that an owner believes is going to have a breakout season.”

 

Every year in the world of FF, there are a group of players that fit in to 3 separate categories of “sleeping.”  These categories will be called: Should Be, Could Be, and Someday May Be.

 

The Should Be’s had a decent, maybe even good season last year and are expected to improve on last year’s results.  The reasons are generally related to the athlete being a young player and the assumption is made they will receive more playing time, become more mature, and their talent level has increased.

 

The Could Be’s involve players, regardless of age, that have been put into a new situation.  These players usually receive the opportunity due to a player higher up the depth chart retiring or leaving via free agency.  They may also get a greater opportunity to perform because of a new head coach, offensive and/or defensive coordinators rolling into town.  The new coach(s) may bring a new philosophy that runs a 3 WR, single RB system over an I-form, 2 RB, 2 WR format or switches the old school 3-4 defense to a Cover-2.

 

The Someday May Be’s are rookies.  No one knows what to expect from a rookie, regardless of draft position.  While there have been many players drafted in the top 5 that have gone on to become perennial Pro Bowlers or NFL Hall of Famers (i.e. John Elway ’83, Barry Sanders ‘89, Peyton Manning ‘98, Donovan McNabb ’99, Julius Peppers ’02) while many other top 5 picks have drifted off, or are getting close to the realm of obscurity (i.e. OLB Billy Ray Smith ’83, Tony Mandarich ’89, Ryan Leaf ’98, Akili Smith ’99, Joey Harrington ’02).

 

While it is possible to fit in to categories 1 and 2 or 2 and 3, it is impossible to dwell in all 3.  If you are a rookie, obviously you can’t have any NFL statistics coming into the new season.

 

Another issue with sleepers is the level of sleep they are in.  These players may fit in to the previously listed categories, but they really aren’t the same.  Is Ronnie Brown the same type of sleeper as Brandon Jacobs?  How about Matt Jones and Roddy White, Eli Manning and Charlie Frye, Kellen Winslow II and Leonard Pope?

 

Since I broke down type of sleepers into categories, I’ll break down the stages of sleep into three levels: dozing, napping, and snoring.

 

The players that are considered Dozing are on the cusp of breaking through, and within the last 1-3 years, they have put up respectable numbers, most likely as a backup or spot-starter.  Last year, RB Larry Johnson would have been at the top of this list.  In a couple of my leagues last year, LJ was drafted by owners before proven players such as Fred Taylor and Reuben Droughns.

 

The players that are Napping could be any number of players that once upon a time put up good numbers and you are hoping they produce to previous years’ numbers.  These players could also be a great talent that has just not lived up to potential yet.  WR Charles “you boys wanna get high?” Rogers seems to be in a perpetual state of Napping.  But he also has the talent to catch 80 passes.  The Nappers are a very frustrating group that rarely comes through, but when they do, you may be getting the steal of the draft.

 

Finally, we have the Snorers.  These players have minimal potential and their sleeper ability is usually over-hyped.  Last year, RB Brandon Jacobs was one of the biggest Snorers around.  I remember the rumors circulating last year about how Jacobs ran a sub 4.40 and that he would be Jerome Bettis, circa 2004.  Here are the numbers for Jacobs in 2005: 38 carries, 99 yards, 7 TD’s.  Yeah, the TD’s are close to Bettis’ from 2004 (13), but Bettis had 941 yards in ’04.  If you started Jacobs last year, it was basically a TD or bust and that is a horrendous type of Russian Roulette to play in FF.

 

So what is the ideal type of sleeper to prospect?  With the three categories (Should Be, Could Be, Someday May Be) and three levels (Dozing, Napping, and Snoring), your safest option would be Should Be Dozing.  The least desirable are the Someday May Be Snorers.  It is hard to pick out these players, but if you think you know of a SMBS, you better not pick him during the draft.  Better yet, build him up to the other managers so you can watch your fellow owner go down in flames after banking his #3 RB spot on Brandon Jacobs.

 

In future articles, I will break down sleepers at RB, QB, WR, and TE with some possibilities for D/ST.  As for kickers, if you only need one and you take one before the last two rounds of your draft, then you are just wasting that pick. 

 

I was in a 12 team league last year that required 2 kickers per team.  That league had 18 rounds.  The last kicker selected, and therefore the 24^th kicker selected also happened to be the last player selected in the draft (#216).  That player was Neal Rackers. 

 

My point is no one really knows who the best kicker will be in a given year.  Kickers usually stay healthy, so there really isn’t much need to concern yourself with depth.  Kickers on top 10 offenses generally score in the top 15 of kickers.  The only major exception to that rule is Mike Vanderjagt back in ’04 when Manning threw 49 TD’s.  Just not enough FG’s that year.

 

            Next week I will pick 3 RB’s that fit into different categories and levels so you don’t get robbed during your draft.  When it comes to your FF draft, if you can’t spot the sucker at the table within the first 15 minutes, then you are the sucker.